The Expanse is a science fiction series set several hundred years in the future. Man has spread throughout the solar system and taken first steps to other worlds but has brought Earth’s very human conflicts with them. Even imaginary negotiations offer situations worth analyzing, providing entertaining lessons for the practicing negotiator.
At Odds and with No Solution
In season 4, the focus is on habitable Ilus. Belter refugees from our solar system’s asteroid belt claim Ilus but a U.N.-chartered group contests that right. With the planet’s alien and deadly technology awakening, Jim Holden, the main protagonist, negotiates with both groups to evacuate and potentially abandoning their ownership.
By halfway through episode 5, everyone has taken up arms to defend their competing positions, both figuratively and literally. The two groups have mutually exclusive claims and barricade themselves behind fortifications. Holden approaches the hostage-holding Belters with raised hands saying, “I want to talk.”
Their figurative stands are evident. The chartered group’s security head says, “(They’ve) got two of mine at gunpoint.” A vocal Belter exclaims, “Git da f&#k off ah planet!” (The producers do not show how Holden got the two groups to meet. That is a critical element, and maybe they left it on the editing room floor.)
The groups increasingly yell over each other and Holden, standing in the middle, finally shouts, “Goddammit, everybody shut up for a minute!” “I know no one want’s to back down.” The only resolution visible to all is they would have to kill everyone else. Holden has listened and openly acknowledged the situation.
Holden continues. “But that’s not why I am here … I haven’t told any of you the truth, and maybe if I had, you’d understand the larger issues at play, and you wouldn’t be wasting time over this territorial bulls&#t.”
Separating Interests from Positions
Every negotiation needs preparation but no negotiation advances without engagement. Dialogue is the primary tool of engagement. People talk to find solutions, outlining their positions along the way. If they could get to an answer alone, they might, but they can’t. If you are alone or can force a no-cost result, that’s not a negotiation.
Positions are the overt words for what you want, such as your desired outcome. Interests are the hidden causes behind those overt positions. Emotions are to underlying concerns as interests are to positions. When competing positions exclude each other, negotiators call this win-lose: one must lose for the other to win. Mutual solutions are win-win.
Searching for a Common View
Collaboration creates mutually beneficial solutions. Both parties need to be willing to find a joint answer, even if it is a ‘last-resort’ driven by the high cost of their ‘best alternative to a negotiated agreement’ (BATNA). Perspective counts.
The viewpoint toward the negotiation is the frame. Each party, indeed each person, may have a different framework structuring their outlook. Like the two barrels of a binocular, each party's focus must be close to resolve a solution.
Patience and Adaptability
Frames are dependent upon context and context changes. Reviewing the basis for, and credibility of, a framework arises immediately upon engagement, as new information surfaces. Negotiators proactively review progress toward solutions.
The time needed to reach success may be short or long; reviews may be frequent or not. The influence of time on a negotiation varies with context and personality. There is no fixed time required for frameworks to align.
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Holden admits that his real mission is to evaluate the alien technology. And in doing so, he’s likely responsible for the awakening. He’s transparent, even though it makes him the focus of ire from both sides. Yet, they quickly retreat again to opposing sides. At the beginning of episode 6, Holden admits, “It’s not going the way I’d hoped.”
Then they learn an island on the opposite side of Ilus has just vaporized in a massive explosion. The vague threat of unknown alien technology turns into the definitive one of approaching windstorm and tsunami in moments. With only precious hours until disaster hits the settlement, a new framework takes over.
Many refocus and begin problem-solving the evacuation. Yet the Belters consider staying on Ilus to preserve their claim. To leave, they seek assurance from Holden. He relies on trust, saying, “I can’t speak for … Earth, but I give you my word: I’ll do everything I can.”
Negotiators Build Trust through Dialogue
In real and fictional worlds alike, self-preservation certainly counts as a dominating and common framework to find mutual solutions. Negotiators continuously assess events and adapt until they get an answer. Yet, a joint solution without the trust to implement the partnership is not a resolution. The fictional evacuation of Ilus nicely reflects much of real negotiations.
Distractions might be intentional reframing or just noise, but either way, they provide opportunities to see a problem in a new light! https://youtu.be/jaaJyAjvajo