In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the US government passed in March 2020 the world’s largest economic stimulus at 13% of US GDP. One-third of a year later, the funds had been mostly exhausted with the S&P500 hovering near an all-time high and economic recovery varying widely across industries. Yet unemployment continued to exceed that of the 2008 Great Recession, and US deaths approached 150,000.
Public negotiations, like those for renewed US stimulus bills, offer rich grounds for learning negotiation skills. We certainly don’t see all the machinations but do see enough to measure achievement, or the lack thereof.
Negotiation consists of Preparation and Engagement to form Partnership: we seek agreement to get something done together. Preparation is often private and silent, but Engagement is typically public and noisy.
Support and Change in Engagement
One possible definition of government is a mechanism for finding solutions to bring greater mutual benefit than could have been achieved otherwise. The US government’s Federal Reserve Bank (‘Fed’) continued to take steps throughout the year, creating tight alignment between their policies and actions. Yet the Fed is limited to addressing financial risk, which can’t generate stimulus for companies or people. That fiscal capability resides only with the houses of Congress.
Engagement consists of developing support and assessing change. Support is created from the details of discussion, change, from the dynamics within. Their components are interrelated but have an order.
The quality of people’s interaction in negotiation is more important than its hard details. Conversations, and our reaction to them, provide many opportunities to adjust or reverse course. Talking past each other, less so.
Vital Awareness and Essential Chitchat
Some people feel the pandemics’ human cost personally; others only when it affects them directly. Economic health measures such as GDP, unemployment, and debt are abstract unless they influence an individual’s own job. In response to the House’s $3.4 T bill in May, the Senate in July proposed but could not pass a $1 T bill as the March benefits neared expiration. An unstable economic situation muddied the waters with a creeping human cost.
Two aspects of engagement are the discussions creating support, and the discernment gained about other’s perspectives. Discernment is understanding interests underlying positions and concerns underlying emotions.
We talk and listen, then understand. Negotiators anticipate another’s perspective but test their assumptions in dialogue, correcting if they seek to achieve together something greater. Speeches to an audience don’t count.
Foggy Vagueness among Traded Offers
As elected officials summer campaigned for the November election, the Speaker of the House began floating proposals for $2.2 T instead of their $3.4 T in May. Likewise, the Senate Majority leader unveiled a $300 B bill in response to their own $1 T package in July, yet the bill failed to pass. A September proposal from the bipartisan Problem Solver’s Caucus outlined $1.5 T. Almost immediately, the President asked for more, in direct opposition to his own party’s Senate.
Two additional aspects of engagement are the use of ambiguity and reciprocity. Ambiguity, a natural part of language, enables efficiency and flexibility while reciprocity identifies change. Both are tenants of bargaining.
No two dogs are the same, but perhaps all we are concerned with is their common barking. Dueling dogs serve no one’s peace of mind. Agreement is delayed when oversimplified positions shroud reasonable trades.
Crystallized Trust Before Convenient Opportunity
COVID-19 testing and state aid competed with legal protections and budget deficits. A September stopgap-spending bill was passed quickly but only because of an impending government shutdown. The Speaker pressed timing by refusing to close Congress before the new stimulus was defined and passed their own $2.2 T bill. As the President stopped and restarted talks in October with a $1.8 T idea, his Executive continued discussions with the House. Election Day loomed.
The two most important parts of Engagement for the negotiations over new stimulus legislation have been the inability to build trust from discussion and the preeminent influence of time. The insufficient debate over a common solution prevented the creation of trust.
The onslaught of election timing overwhelmed the development of support for new stimulus bills. Urgency benefitted early stimulus efforts and corroding later ones (for better or worse).
As November 3 approaches, no ‘top-up’ of COVID-19 stimulus seems likely. Yet the attuned negotiator can find worthwhile insights even among chaos.